Boeing Stock's Big Test: What Wall Street Is Watching and Why It's a Mess

Let me get this straight. Boeing is about to walk onto the stage, clear its throat, and calmly announce that it’s lighting a pile of cash on fire—a pile that could be as big as $4.9 billion, thanks to yet another delay on its forever-upcoming 777X jet. And Wall Street’s response? A "Strong Buy" rating. Twelve analysts are screaming "Buy!" while only one lone soul is timidly suggesting "Hold."

Am I the only one who feels like I'm taking crazy pills here? This is like watching a doctor tell a patient, "The good news is, your cholesterol is fantastic! The bad news is we have to amputate your leg. But hey, let's focus on that cholesterol!" The market has apparently decided to focus on the cholesterol.

The $4 Billion Asterisk No One Wants to Read

Everyone knows this charge is coming. It’s the worst-kept secret in the aerospace industry. J.P. Morgan’s top guy, Seth Seifman, is casually "penciling in" a $4 billion hit (Boeing Stock’s Big Test Arrives. Here’s What J.P. Morgan Expects.). "Penciling in." Give me a break. That’s the kind of language you use when you’re guessing how many pizzas to order for a party, not when you’re forecasting a loss that’s bigger than the GDP of a small country. He even calls it a "finger in the wind" estimate.

So the entire investment thesis is based on a guess about the size of the financial crater. And yet, the stock is up 26% this year. Why? Because jet deliveries are up, the supply chain is less of a dumpster fire than it was, and a new CEO is at the helm. It’s the classic corporate playbook: when the core product is a mess, just distract everyone with some operational metrics and a fresh face.

This whole spectacle is a masterclass in cognitive dissonance. The analysts are tripping over themselves to praise the shiny new production numbers for the 737 MAX while completely ignoring the fact that the company can’t seem to get its next-generation flagship out the door without a catastrophic financial penalty. What exactly are they buying? A company that’s getting better at producing its old planes while failing spectacularly at building its new ones?

It's Just a "Timing Issue," Folks

The corporate-speak artists are already hard at work trying to frame this disaster. They’ll tell you it’s a "timing issue." A delay in the 777X program, they say, just pushes cash flow further down the road. It doesn't destroy the value, it just… postpones it.

This is a bad argument. No, "bad" doesn't cover it—this is a fundamentally dishonest way to look at a multi-billion-dollar failure. A "timing issue" is when your Amazon package arrives a day late. A multi-year delay on a flagship aircraft program that triggers billions in charges is a symptom of a deep, systemic problem. It points to a company that has lost its engineering edge, a company tangled in so much red tape with the FAA that it can’t execute on its own timeline. Offcourse, they don't want you to think about that.

CEO Kelly Ortberg himself admitted that even a "little delay" could have "a pretty big financial impact." You think? This isn't a little delay. We’re talking about a program that was supposed to be flying passengers years ago. At what point do we stop calling these "delays" and start calling them what they are: failures? They've been promising a smooth operational cadence for years, and yet here we are, again, bracing for another massive write-down. It just ain't sustainable.

And what about accountability? I swear, if I ran my own business this way, I’d be bankrupt. But in the bizarro world of multinational corporations, you can burn billions of dollars, miss your own targets repeatedly, and still get a "Strong Buy" rating from the people whose job it is to know better. It’s a completely insulated reality.

Don't Worry, the MAX Is Pumping

The bulls will point to the good news. And to be fair, there is some. The FAA finally signed off on Boeing ramping up 737 MAX production to 42 planes a month. The 787 line is also humming along better than it has in years. These are the numbers that are propping up the stock price and fueling the Wall Street optimism.

But isn't this just a glorified distraction? Focusing on the 737 is like celebrating a band for playing its greatest hits while they completely botch every new song they try to write. The MAX is a cash cow, sure, but it's also a plane with a haunted past that represents yesterday's technology. The 777X is supposed to be the future. And right now, that future looks incredibly expensive and very, very late.

Let’s not forget Boeing’s track record. The company has missed Wall Street’s earnings-per-share estimates in four of the last nine quarters. That’s nearly a 50% failure rate. This isn’t a company that has earned the benefit of the doubt. Yet the analysts are setting price targets that imply another 16% upside from here. Based on what, exactly? Hope? A belief that this time, finally, things will be different?

Maybe I'm the crazy one here. Maybe a $4.9 billion charge is just the cost of doing business in the big leagues now. But it feels like we’re all watching a tightrope walker who keeps stumbling, and instead of gasping, the crowd is applauding his recovery while ignoring the fact that he’s getting dangerously close to the edge.

This Whole Thing Is a Joke

So here we are, waiting for the big announcement on Wednesday. Boeing will step up to the mic, announce the gigantic loss everyone already expects, and then immediately pivot to talking about production rates and "strong demand." The analysts will nod along, publish notes saying the "bad news is now priced in," and reiterate their "Buy" ratings. Nothing will fundamentally change. A multi-billion-dollar failure will be laundered into a "clearing event" in the space of a single news cycle. And we're all just supposed to play along.