Michael Burry's Nvidia Puts: Bubble Warning?

Alright, let's get one thing straight: Michael Burry. "The Big Short" guy. The dude who made a fortune betting against the housing market. We all know the story. But lately? It feels like he's been screaming "bubble" every other Tuesday. Is this another case of the boy who cried wolf, or is Cassandra Unchained actually seeing something we're all missing?

Burry's Back...and Bearish

So, Burry's back on X (formerly Twitter, RIP good names), and he's not exactly bullish. He's dropping hints about an AI bubble, posting cryptic Star Wars references ("These aren't the charts you are looking for"), and generally acting like the market's about to implode. Again.

And what's his proof? Charts comparing cloud growth from 2018-2022 to now, a web of AI deals involving Nvidia, OpenAI, and Oracle, and AI capex matching the tech spending of the late '90s tech bubble. Okay, fair enough. It sounds scary.

But then he goes and buys puts on Nvidia (NVDA) and Palantir (PLTR). Big ones. Like, $186.58 million on Nvidia and $912.1 million on Palantir, according to Whale Wisdom. That's a lot of skin in the game. He's not just tweeting; he's betting. Which, you know, puts a little more weight behind the "bubble" talk. Michael Burry Is Super-Bearish On Palantir — With 5 Million Puts - Palantir Technologies (NASDAQ:PLTR)

Is he right? I don't know. Honestly, does anyone really know? The AI hype is insane. Nvidia's stock has gone parabolic. Everyone's throwing money at anything with the letters "AI" in it. It feels… unsustainable.

But here's the thing: tech is always unsustainable until it isn't. Remember the dot-com bubble? Amazon was supposed to be dead. Now look at it.

The "Only Winning Move..."

Burry's pinned tweet is a quote from the movie "WarGames": "Sometimes, the only winning move is not to play." He's suggesting that the AI boom is a rigged game, that the only way to win is to stay out of it.

That's a pretty bleak outlook. It also sounds a little… defeatist. I mean, if you think something's a bubble, shouldn't you be trying to short it into oblivion? Or is he just saying that the powers that be have so much control over the market that even he can't win?

And what's with the "Cassandra Unchained" thing? He's comparing himself to a prophetess who's doomed to be ignored. Is he trying to say that everyone's too blinded by greed to see the coming crash? Maybe. Or maybe he's just enjoying the attention.

He's betting against Palantir, too. A company I still don't fully understand, and honestly, I don't think anyone really does. It's all black boxes and government contracts and vague promises of "AI-powered solutions." It's the perfect company to bet against in a bubble, if you ask me. But is it a bubble? or is it just…overvalued?

Then again, maybe I'm the crazy one here. Maybe AI really is the future. Maybe Nvidia is worth a trillion dollars. Maybe Palantir will save the world.

Offcourse, Burry also added some calls on Halliburton and Pfizer. So, while he's betting against AI, he's also betting for oil and pharmaceuticals. Go figure.

Broken Clock or Market Oracle?

So, is Burry right this time? Is the AI boom a bubble about to burst? Or is he just a broken clock, occasionally right by accident? It's hard to say. He's been wrong before, and he'll be wrong again. But he's also been right, spectacularly so.

Maybe the real question is: does it even matter? The market's gonna do what the market's gonna do. We're all just along for the ride.

And honestly...I kinda miss the days when people weren't obsessed with AI. Remember when we just argued about whether pineapple belonged on pizza? Simpler times.

So, What's the Real Story?

Look, I'm not gonna lie. I'm skeptical. Burry's been wrong before, and the AI hype is reaching levels of absurdity that make me want to bury my head in the sand. But he's also a smart guy, and he's got a track record. So, I'm not gonna dismiss him out of hand. But I ain't betting the farm on his doomsday predictions, either.