Breeze Airways' Route Cuts: What's the Real Story?

Breeze Airways is betting big on the Gem State, announcing direct flights from Twin Falls, Idaho, to Las Vegas and Orange County, California. On the surface, it seems like a win-win: cheaper flights (introductory fares at $49) and easier access to vacation spots. But let's dig a little deeper, shall we?

Route Rationality or Risky Business?

Breeze's strategy, as they've stated, is to target routes underserved by major airlines. The Twin Falls announcement is a prime example. Mayor Ruth Pierce is understandably enthusiastic, touting the benefits for residents and businesses. And Breeze themselves highlight their network of 170 routes between 60+ cities.

However, the airline industry is littered with the corpses of ambitious expansions gone wrong. And Breeze already seems to be facing some turbulence. The simultaneous announcement of the Twin Falls routes alongside the cancellation of three West Coast routes (Burbank to Eugene, Pasco, and Redmond) raises an eyebrow.

Why the sudden change of heart? Breeze cited Alaska Airlines' entry into those markets as the reason. The lesson? Being first isn't always enough; you have to be sustainable. In other words, can you make money on the route?

This highlights a crucial point: route profitability. Breeze is betting that direct flights will stimulate demand in smaller markets like Twin Falls (population around 50,000). They're likely banking on the "BreezeThru" offering via Orange County to capture passengers heading to the greater Los Angeles area.

But let's look at the numbers. According to US Department of Transportation data (July 2024-June 2025), Las Vegas-Twin Falls had a mere 2,700 round-trip passengers. That's tiny. Breeze is hoping to grow that number substantially with nonstop flights and low fares. The question is: how much?

The Allegiant Precedent: A Cautionary Tale?

Breeze isn't the first airline to try this strategy. Allegiant previously served the Las Vegas-Twin Falls route until 2010. And Avelo pulled out of Arcata/Eureka (another Breeze destination from Vegas) in 2024, with a dismal 61% seat occupancy rate.

This begs the question: what makes Breeze think they can succeed where others have failed? Is it simply lower fares? A better marketing strategy? Or is there something fundamentally different about the market dynamics in 2026? (Besides, you know, the ever-creeping effects of inflation on everything, airfare included.)

One factor could be the type of aircraft. Breeze is using Airbus A220-300s on some routes. These planes are more fuel-efficient than older models, potentially lowering operating costs and allowing for lower fares. But fuel efficiency only goes so far.

The competition on the Las Vegas-Orange County route is also worth noting. Breeze will be going head-to-head with Southwest (seven daily flights), Delta (twice daily), and Frontier (four weekly). That's a crowded market. Breeze will need to offer significantly lower fares or a superior customer experience to stand out.

I've looked at hundreds of these route announcements, and the success stories always hinge on one thing: consistent demand. Can Breeze generate enough traffic to fill those planes, even during the off-season? The introductory fares are a good start, but they won't last forever.

The airline plans to operate the Twin Falls route twice weekly (Mondays and Fridays). This limited schedule could be a double-edged sword. It offers flexibility for weekend getaways, but it may not be sufficient for business travelers or those seeking longer vacations.

Is This More Than Just a Weekend Getaway?

Breeze's success in Twin Falls (and other similar markets) will depend on several factors: their ability to stimulate demand, their cost structure, and their ability to compete with larger airlines. The cancellation of the Burbank routes suggests that they're willing to cut their losses quickly if a route isn't performing as expected. Breeze Airways Cuts 3 West Coast Routes Before 1st Flight: Here's Why

The airline is clearly targeting leisure travelers. But what about business travelers? Twin Falls has a growing economy, particularly in the agricultural and food processing sectors. Could Breeze attract business travelers with convenient, affordable flights? The limited flight schedule might be a barrier.

Breeze estimates they'll need around 400 aircraft to execute their long-term strategy of flying routes no one else serves. That's an ambitious goal. And it relies on a continued supply of relatively fuel-efficient aircraft.

The Data's Still Out

The Twin Falls gamble is a microcosm of Breeze's overall strategy: identify underserved markets, offer low fares, and hope that demand follows. It's a high-risk, high-reward approach. And it's too early to say whether it will pay off. But one thing is clear: Breeze will need to closely monitor the numbers and be prepared to adjust their strategy if necessary.

Early Turbulence, Proceed With Caution