Tesla's Shareholder Meeting: Musk's Pay Package and the Opposition

Tesla shareholders are gearing up to vote on Elon Musk's proposed compensation package on Thursday, November 6, 2025. At stake is a potential payout close to $1 trillion (that's twelve zeros, for those counting at home) in exchange for Musk hitting some pretty ambitious targets over the next decade. The vote's outcome, expected shortly after the meeting, could dramatically reshape Tesla's trajectory and Musk's role within the company.

The Stakes: A Titan's Fortune and Tesla's Ambitions

The proposed package isn't just a bonus; it's an all-or-nothing bet on Tesla's future. Musk would receive over 423 million additional shares, bumping his stake to around 25%. But here's the kicker: he only gets the full reward if Tesla's market cap explodes from $1.5 trillion to $8.5 trillion within ten years.

That's not all. The deal also requires Tesla to sell 12 million more cars, secure 10 million autonomous driving subscriptions, operate 1 million Robotaxis, and deploy 1 million Tesla Bots. Ambitious? That's an understatement. It's like setting a goal to colonize Mars while simultaneously solving world hunger.

Polymarket currently puts the odds of approval at 96%, while Kalshi has it at 91% (down from 98% in September). Are these prediction markets accurately reflecting shareholder sentiment, or are they just caught up in the Musk hype? I've looked at enough market predictions to know that even the most sophisticated models can be swayed by narratives.

Tesla's current performance offers a mixed picture. They delivered just under 498,000 vehicles through Q3, and quarterly revenues hit $28.09 billion. Respectable numbers, but are they enough to justify a $7 trillion increase in market cap? That's the question shareholders need to be asking themselves.

The Divide: Shareholders Weigh the Risks and Rewards

The shareholder debate is sharply divided. Tesla chair Robyn Denholm is practically begging shareholders to approve the deal, warning that Musk might bolt if he doesn't get his way (and that Tesla would lose "significant value without Musk"). It's a classic "key man" argument, but it also sounds a bit like corporate blackmail.

On the other side, Norges Bank Investment Management plans to vote against the package, citing concerns about dilution and the lack of risk mitigation. Proxy firms Glass Lewis and ISS are also advising against the deal. Even CalPERS, holding roughly 5 million shares, is a "no" vote, calling the package excessive. Drew Hambly described the deal as larger than payment plans for executives of other firms "by many orders of magnitude."

Musk, never one to shy away from a fight, has labeled Glass Lewis and ISS "corporate terrorists" and their advice "asinine." Strong words, even for him. But the question is: are these dissenting voices a sign of growing unease, or just the usual background noise? Here’s Who Opposes Musk’s $1 Trillion Pay—As Tesla Votes On His Compensation Today - Forbes

Tesla's sales dip in Europe, with Norway down over 50%, Netherlands nearly 48%, Spain 30%, and Sweden a staggering 88%, add another layer of complexity. Interbrand also dropped Tesla from 12th to 25th in their global brand ranking, citing rising EV competition and Musk's political entanglements.

And this is the part of the report that I find genuinely puzzling: how much of Tesla's brand value is tied directly to Musk's persona, and how much to the underlying technology and products? If the brand is inextricably linked to Musk, then Denholm's warning carries weight. But if Tesla can thrive independently of its CEO's antics, then shareholders have more room to push back on this compensation package.

So, What's the Real Story?

Ultimately, this vote isn't just about compensating Elon Musk; it's about defining the future relationship between Tesla and its leader. Approving this package is a massive bet on Musk's vision and ability to execute. Rejecting it is a gamble that Tesla can thrive even without his singular (and sometimes erratic) leadership. The numbers suggest a high probability of approval, but the underlying dynamics are far more complex than any algorithm can capture. The real question is whether shareholders are voting with their heads, or simply swept up in the cult of Musk.